Global vaccine forecasting

The challenge

A competitor vaccine manufacturer recently put a temporary hold on their vaccine development program, requiring Putnam’s client to update their global commercial forecast to account for a range of potential competitive launch scenarios. The forecast would be used to inform commercial strategy and supply chain decisions.

Our solution

Research objectives:

• Assess likelihood to recommend, stock vaccine across patient types and scenarios
• Quantify willingness to accept the vaccine based on variations in out-of-pocket cost and HCP recommendation
• Understand likelihood of protocol inclusion (LTC) and stocking likelihood (LTC + pharmacy)

Our approach:
We conducted four key research studies in US, EU5, and Japan:

1. HCP Quantitative Demand Study
2. Patient Quantitative Willingness to Pay Study
3. Pharmacy Stakeholder Interviews
4. Long-term Care Stakeholder Interviews

Both quantitative studies used a monadic design approach to test the impact of several competitive scenarios.

The results

Putnam delivered the findings and forecast inputs through a series of workshops with various client teams. This built alignment around the updated competitive landscape and helped team confidently make changes to their strategy.